Style, pressing and what the data tells us about City

Johannes Hoff Thorup is continuing to implement his new style of play, and the general consensus amongst supporters is that City is showing tangible signs of progress in its performances. 

Amid a summer of fraught change and a pivot in strategy, the expectation is that time will be required to begin seeing the fruits of their labour - but do the numbers marry with what many feel their eyes are telling them? 

With the help of Opta Analyst, we've examined the underlying numbers and statistics surrounding City's opening four Championship games.

What does the style of play look like?

Thorup has spoken readily about his want to dominate matches with possession of the ball, and the fear with that approach is that it becomes lateral, ponderous and at the expense of chance creation. 

Implementing his desired style will take time amid a host of playing squad changes that saw eight arrive and nine depart - some in unceremonious fashion. 

So what does the data show about City's playing style after four matches of their league campaign? 

Norwich City's style of play has been ranked compared to the rest of the Championship sides. (Image: Opta Analyst)

This graph illustrates that City's passing sequences are the longest in the Championship, proving that Thorup is getting joy with the implementation of his style on the training pitches of Colney. 

City have completed the second-most passes in the division behind Leeds United, with Burnley and Saturday's opponents Swansea City among the sides with the highest pass sequences. 

It also shows the pace at which sides are moving the ball during those sequences.

Neil Harris' Millwall are the most direct side in the division and play with the most intensity at the cost of prolonged spells of settled possession, whereas Sunderland, the only side to have a 100pc record, have achieved that with the third lowest average possession in the division—both those statements align with what our eyes are witnessing. 

Thorup demands his side play that possession-based game with a certain intensity and, despite not converting that into a real amount of consistent chances, Opta Analyst ranks their direct speed upfield between 1.8 and 2.0, a number bettered by just seven sides. 

The challenge now is to convert that work in possession into quality chances. As a team, the hope is to have a high expected goals rate and a low expected goals against rate. Again, this is an area of real green shoots for Thorup's men. 

In four Championship matches, City have amassed an expected goals rate of 4.20, which is eighth lowest in the entire division. Per 90, Norwich are amassing an expected goals rate of 1.05. 

But, their expected goals against offers cause for real encouragement. Despite the concerns surrounding their defensive behaviour, Norwich have recorded the eighth-best in 3.70. Their victory over Coventry was the first Championship game this season where their xGA was higher than 1. 

That does all seem to match the eye test and is evidence for why quiet encouragement is building among City supporters at present. 

If City can push their chance creation higher, those defensive foundations suggest they could make quick progress. 

What does the out-of-possession style look like?

The Canaries' first clean sheet of the campaign against Coventry was seen as a major step forward after some cheap defensive concessions in games versus Oxford and Blackburn. 

Despite the focus on control with the ball, City are getting joy from their work out of possession, as the graph below illustrates. 

City rank among the best teams in the Championship for successful high turnovers. (Image: Opta Analyst)

Passes per defensive action (PPDA) measure how many passes a team allows the opposition to play before they make a tackle. So whether they're sitting off and letting them knock it around the back and deep midfield or whether they're chasing after them to win the ball high up the pitch. The lower the number, the more a team presses.

Norwich's PPDA is among the highest in the division at 14.1, yet only two teams, Sheffield Wednesday and Stoke, who rank among the most intense pressing sides, have won more high turnovers than Thorup's side.

Of those 32 high turnovers won, six have ended in shots and one resulted in a goal - Josh Sargent's strike against Blackburn after Callum Doyle's interception. 

That shows that, despite not being a side that presses with real or sustained intensity and aggression, they are doing so with significant efficiency to create moments that end in shots on their opponent's goal. 

How many points should City have, according to the data?

For those willing to cast a quick glance at the early Championship table, Norwich currently sits 13th on five points with a minus-one goal difference. 

The early portion of the season, due to the lack of data, can throw up anomalies with teams running hot and cold - Luton can consider themselves unfortunate to have picked up just a single point from their opening four matches, whilst Sunderland and West Brom are two examples of sides over-performing based on this model. 

This particular model uses each team's expected goals for and against to predict how the match would end if it were played 10,000 times. It doesn't take into account game state, for example, if you're expected to be losing but drawing, you'd chase the game more, so it isn't completely foolproof. 

A list of which teams are over and underperforming in the Championship. (Image: Opta Analyst)

Norwich have taken five points from their opening four matches - that is 0.8 out from their expected points - showing they are roughly on par with their points return matching their performances. 

That does marry up with the eye test, with nobody of a yellow and green persuasion having any complaints about their opening day defeat to Oxford. Draws against Blackburn and Sheffield United felt like a fair reflection, even if City ended both games stronger and probably had an argument for more points. 

Coventry was a victory that both head coaches felt Norwich deserved. The hope is that return can swell as performances continue to build and grow as the season gets older. 

If City maintained this rate across the season, Opta Analyst predict they would record an eighth-placed finish on 67 points. The data currently gives them a 1.86pc chance of winning the title, 5.78pc chance of automatic promotion, 26.44pc chance of a top six finish and 1.26pc of relegation.

All of this data epitomises why those green shoots are creating so much encouragement. It matches the eye test of what City have produced in the early stages of the Championship campaign under Thorup and his team of coaches. 

The key will be to find consistency in those numbers whilst continuing to implement that newfound style of play.